国外投行研究报告

MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH

March 31, 2010

Research Global

Global Metals Playbook– 2Q10 Navigating liquidity withdrawal, policy tightening and a stronger US dollar Cyclical growth trends are still supportive for commodities as

Global Metals and Mining Team Forecast changes most positive for nickel, palladium, metallurgical coal, iron ore, and steel. Preferred commodity exposures by sector: Base metals– copper and nickel Precious metals– platinum Bulks– iron ore and metallurgical coals Highest conviction Overweight equities: Vedanta plc PanAust Ltd Western Areas NL Evraz plc Xstrata plc Implats Ltd Tata Steel Ltd Vale Inc Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

unprecedented fiscal and monetary easing in 2009 is generating a two speed growth environment in 2010 led by emerging markets, especially in Asia and Latin America. We see policy initiatives to scale back liquidity or confront inflation

either as welcome signs of policy normalisation or prudent actions designed to sustain growth and economic development Base metals outlook: We expect continued differentiation in

relative performance in base metals in 2010, with more robust fundamentals in copper and nickel expected to deliver strong YoY price gains relative to aluminium and zinc. Precious metals outlook: A strengthening US dollar is a

significant headwind for gold and silver investment demand, but a recovery in global automotive production is a strong positive for the platinum group metals. Bulk commodity outlook: A move to more frequent pricing

mechanisms for steel-making raw materials is driving a sharp uplift in prices of iron ore and metallurgical coal, with upside risks to consensus expectations on 2010 average price outcomes.

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